Kj. Alsem et Psh. Leeflang, PREDICTING ADVERTISING EXPENDITURES USING INTENTION SURVEYS, International journal of forecasting, 10(2), 1994, pp. 327-337
In this article we study the use of intention surveys to predict the e
ffects of a possible entrant. The case under investigation deals with
the introduction of private broadcasting in the Netherlands. Several p
redictions of the advertising expenditures in various media are given
which depend on a number of scenarios. These scenarios are used to red
uce the discrepancies between behavioural intentions and actual behavi
our. The predictions of the most realistic scenario are compared with
their realizations, and the differences are analyzed. To this end the
prediction error is decomposed into an intention error and a sampling
error. This decomposition offers good opportunities to analyze discrep
ancies between intentions and actual behaviour.