ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF DECLINE OF THE AFRICAN ELEPHANT

The results of a simulation model used to extrapolate the trend in Afr ican elephant populations is shown to be very sensitive to the criteri a used to calibrate the model. Furthermore, the implication that eleph ant populations will become extinct in the near future is shown to be an inevitable consequence of the assumption that the level of effort u sed to hunt elephants increases exponentially. An alternative model, t hat links the level of effort to the theory of open-access exploitatio n of resources, results in elephant numbers declining significantly, b ut not to extinction. The divergence in these results suggests that it is vital to have a good understanding of economic forces underlying t he exploitation of elephants when making such projections.