Qw. Yao et H. Tong, ON PREDICTION AND CHAOS IN STOCHASTIC-SYSTEMS, Philosophical transactions-Royal Society of London. Physical sciences and engineering, 348(1688), 1994, pp. 357-369
We propose a new measure of sensitivity to initial conditions within a
stochastic environment and explore its connection with nonlinear pred
iction and statistical estimation. We use modern statistical developme
nts to construct and illustrate pointwise predictors and predictive in
tervals/distributions.