ESTIMATING AFRICAN-AMERICAN MORTALITY FROM INACCURATE DATA

This paper evaluates the quality of vital statistics and census data f or estimating African-American mortality over a period of six decades. The authors employ intercensal cohort comparisons and extinct generat ion estimates to demonstrate that conventionally constructed African-A merican death rates may be seriously flawed as early as age 50. Using the crude death rate at ages 50 + for 1978-1982 in conjunction with es timated growth rates and two model life table systems, the authors est imate black age-specific death rates in 1978-1982. These results sugge st that if a racial crossover in death rates occurs, the age pattern o f mortality among African-Americans must be far outside the range obse rved in populations with more accurate data.