PREDICTING THE RISK OF PERMANENT NURSING-HOME RESIDENCE - THE ROLE OFCOMMUNITY HELP AS INDICATED BY FAMILY HELPERS AND PRIOR LIVING ARRANGEMENTS

Objective. This study examines the difference between permanent and tr ansitory residence in a nursing home with special emphasis on the exte nt to which the risk of a long nursing home stay is reduced by the ava ilability of informal help in the community. Data Source. Secondary da ta were used, taken from the National Long-Term Care Surveys of 1982 a nd 1984. The 1982 NLTCS samples disabled elderly living in the communi ty. For these community dwellers, the 1984 NLTCS provides information on continued residence in the community and on their nursing home epis odes between 1982 and 1984. Method of Analysis. The analysis is based on estimates from a multinomial logit regression with three explicit c ategories: persons with at least one long nursing home stay (n = 292), persons with only short stays (n = 227), and persons who died without ever having had a nursing home stay (n = 945). The implicit category: persons living in the community in 1984 without having had any nursin g home stay (n = 3,368). Principlal Findings. This study demonstrates the systematic differences in the personal characteristics that predic t the risk of long stays from those that predict short stays in a nurs ing home. Controlling for limitations in physical and cognitive functi oning, the regression analysis shows that indicators of informal help in the community have a statistically significant and relatively large effect on the risk of long stays; but the effects of these indicators on the risk of short stays is numerically smaller and not statistical ly significant. Specifically, when the burden of caregiving is shared by a spouse and children, the risk of a long stay in a nursing home is reduced by 9.3 percentage points; in contrast, the risk is increased by 18 percentage points for childless elders who are living alone and by 45.8 percentages points for elders living with adults other than a spouse or children. Conclusion. The relatively strong effects of famil y helpers and living arrangements on the risk of long nursing home sta ys confirm the hypothesis that, after controlling for the effects of p hysical and cognitive functioning, adequate help in the community redu ces the risk of permanent nursing home residence. But help in the comm unity has no effect on the risk of short nursing home episodes because these episodes are likely to be extensions of acute hospital care. Th e findings provide essential information for designing a long-term car e program because they suggest the magnitudes of the effects that such a program can have on reducing the risk of permanent nursing home res idence.