A SIMULATION-MODEL OF THE DUTCH TOURISM MARKET

This paper reports on a simulation model for the Dutch tourism market. The model attempts to capture the principal determinant mechanisms of tourism demand by households, and tourism supply by industries. Deman d is disaggregated into different types of holidays per region or coun try, and is modeled by means of a three-stage decision process, applyi ng advanced econometric techniques on high quality micro and macro dat asets. The supply side of the market is also split up into branches: s upply is modeled through prices, equally estimated using econometrics, and large datasets. The working of the model is illustrated by a medi um term forecast and a simulation exercise.