THE GREAT PRICE SPIKE OF 93 - AN ANALYSIS OF LUMBER AND STUMPAGE PRICES IN THE PACIFIC-NORTHWEST

Lumber prices for coast Douglas-fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Fra nco var. menziesii) swung rapidly from a low of $306 per thousand boar d feet (MBF) in September 1992 to a high of $495/MBF in March 1993. Th is price spike represented a sizable increase in the value of lumber o ver a short period, but it was not the historical anomaly that many in the media would suggest. Using the theoretical relation between lumbe r and stumpage prices, we analyzed the interaction between these two m arkets over the past 82 years. Among our major findings were that ther e are distinct seasonal variations in monthly lumber and stumpage pric es; over the longer term, these markets can be divided into three diff erent periods-1910 to 1944, 1945 to 1962, and 1963 to 1992; the most r ecent price spike did not match previous spikes in real terms; and the traditional lumber and stumpage price interaction became more signifi cantly with time but it does not seem to be as pronounced when we look at monthly prices.