PREDICTIONS FOR CAIRO - A REAFFIRMATION, A REVERSAL, A REALIGNMENT, AND A REFUSAL

This paper analyses the preparatory process for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), to see what it might suggest about the direction that the population debate has taken sinc e the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest and its successor conference held at Mexico City in 1984. Given the insights obtained fr om the ICPD preparatory process, and the legacy of the preceding two U N population conferences, what can we say about the directions that th e evolving population agenda may take at Cairo? In an attempt to answe r this question we make four predictions: (i) the linkage between popu lation and development will be reaffirmed; (ii) United States' 'Mexico City Policy' will be formally reversed as the US will seek to recaptu re the leadership role in the field that it conceded in 1984; (iii) wo men's health issues will rake centre-stage as a new focus in the ongoi ng debate on the larger 'population question' as the agenda is again r ealigned; and (iv) nations will once again refuse attempts by the popu lation establishment to adopt quantitative population targets.