B. Miller et K. Kagan, THE GREAT-POWERS AND REGIONAL CONFLICTS - EASTERN-EUROPE AND THE BALKANS FROM THE POST-NAPOLEONIC ERA TO THE POST-COLD-WAR ERA, International studies quarterly, 41(1), 1997, pp. 51-85
The objective of this article is to provide an analytical framework fo
r addressing the sources of great power regional involvement and its e
ffects on regional conflicts. The thesis of the article is that variat
ions in the degree of intensity of conflicts and the likelihood of suc
cessful conflict resolution in different regions are affected by the c
haracter of great power involvement in these regions. Our argument is
that although great power involvement or noninvolvement cannot cause o
r terminate regional conflicts, it can either intensify existing local
conflicts or mitigate them. We will propose causal linkages between b
alances of great power capabilities and interests, types of great powe
r involvement in regional conflicts, and patterns of regional conflict
s. The study will distinguish among four types of great power involvem
ent in regional conflicts: competition, cooperation, dominance, and di
sengagement. The empirical section will examine the application of the
se propositions in seven historical illustrations, representing the fo
ur patterns of great power involvement in regional conflicts. All the
illustrations will deal with one conflict-ridden region-Eastern Europe
and the Balkans, in successive historical periods from the post-Napol
eonic era to the post-Cold War era. Because of the variety of patterns
of great power improvement in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, this re
gion is uniquely suited to examine the propositions derived from the t
heoretical framework. Drawing on both the theoretical deductions and t
he historical illustrations should make it possible in the last sectio
n to discuss briefly the implications of the proposed framework for re
gional conflict management or mitigation in the Balkans in the post-Co
ld War era.