THE NON-JEWISH VOTE IN ISRAEL IN 1992

In the Israeli general election of June 1992, non-Jewish voters compri sed 12.3 percent of the electorate. Theoretically, this would be suffi cient to elect 15 non-Jewish members to the Knesset if there was a uni ted effort to elect only Arab representatives. However, three Arab-sup ported parties took only 4.88 percent of the valid vote and won five ( 4.17 percent) of the 120 seats in the Knesset. This understatement of potential electoral strength is due almost entirely to low voter turno ut, unfocused voting patterns among non-Jewish voters who, in addition to voting for the three predominantly non-Jewish parties, also cast t heir votes for the full range of Jewish (Zionist) parties, and the ina bility of the Arab parties to agree on distribution of their surplus v otes among themselves. It would not be improper to say that the distri bution of the Arab votes in Israel defies statistical explanation. Sta tistical analysis of the voting shows that it is extremely difficult t o explain or predict the electoral behaviour of the Arab population in Israel, as neither geographical nor socio-economic variables reveal a ny clear pattern. This study indicates the need for detailed investiga tions relating directly to local and neighbourhood effects in the Arab vote in Israel.