SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE OF MEDICINES

Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The mai n players in the drug business have their own views as to how the worl d around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shap ed. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerf ul teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative future s. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: ''sobri ety in sufficiency,'' ''risk avoidance,'' ''technology on demand,'' an d ''free market unfettered.'' Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy makers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future.