ARE ECONOMIC FORECASTS VALUABLE

A previous study questioned whether the published forecasts of one for ecasting organization were valuable to users. A forecast was considere d valuable if it differed significantly from a naive model in the sens e of predicting the direction of change. The results indicated that it was not possible to show that the one-quarter-ahead predictions were valuable. However, the current-quarter forecasts were valuable. This p aper examines whether the results are robust. The forecasts of two add itional organizations were examined and the time period was extended. The results are generally robust.