STOCK ASSESSMENT FOR THE 21ST-CENTURY

During the 20th century, human technology has achieved the capacity to impose radical changes on the Earth's ecosystem. From a fisheries per spective, commercial fleets have become powerful enough to overexploit many stocks, while atmospheric changes and pollution are altering bio logically important ocean processes. Commercial and cultural concerns for the marine world have expanded across a broad range of human organ izations. Competing interests seek access to fish populations, as well as to other oceanic resources. The technology and sociology of the 20 th century will impose severe demands on stock assessment for the 21st . This paper speculates on the evolution of fisheries statistics requi red to address these challenges. We emphasize how properly archived da ta will be critical for future assessments. Technological advances als o provide new opportunities for data collection, analysis, interpretat ion, and dissemination. Although knowledge alone cannot guarantee pres ervation, scientists can at least embark on a course that will signifi cantly increase human understanding of fish populations during the nex t century.