A MATHEMATICAL-MODEL FOR THE EUROPEAN SPREAD OF INFLUENZA

Following a study modelling the geographical spread of influenza in Fr ance, on the basis of population movements through the use of railroad data, we applied the same methodology on a European scale. We simulat ed an epidemic within a network of 9 European cities (Amsterdam, Berli n, Budapest, Copenhagen, London, Madrid, Milano, Paris, Stockholm), on ly taking into account regular between-cities air transport. Transport ation data were obtained from the International Civil Aviation Organiz ation (1991). The theoretical results show that the time lag for actio n is probably short (less than one month) after the first detection of an epidemic focus.