ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE HIV-1 EPIDEMIC AN ORPHANHOOD AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC-STRUCTURE OF POPULATIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Much of the debate on the demographic consequences of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has so far centred around the plausibility of p opulation declines in areas where unprecendently high rates of populat ion growth have recently been in evidence. In this article, the author s use a mathematical model, which combines epidemiological and demogra phic processes, to illustrate how, under a broad range of impacts on p opulation growth, major changes in demographic features, such as the e xtent of orphanhood within populations, are likely to occur. At the sa me time, HIV epidemics are liable to cause significant shifts in the a ge and sex composition of affected populations, which may have importa nt implications for the ways in which they are best able to cope with the increases in orphanhood, as well as those in infant, early childho od and adult mortality.