ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT AND SOCIAL-SECURITY IN MEXICO, 1945-1985 - A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

Debate persists about the relationship between economic development an d the development of the welfare state in Third World countries. The e xpansion of social security in Mexico in the context of debt crisis pr esents a historical puzzle that challenges many theoretical expectatio ns. In light of this puzzle, this study re-evaluates and compares the determinants of economic development and social security coverage thro ugh a time-series analysis of post-revolutionary Mexico. The analysis generates three important findings. First, the determinants of economi c development and social security coverage differ considerably. Second , these differences suggest that the dependent development perspective may adequately account for the dynamics of economic development but d oes not adequately theorize the development of social security. Rather , a political struggle model which emphasizes the role of social prote st as an impetus to welfare reform receives support in the Mexican cas e. Both strikes and opposition party politics have a positive effect o n social security coverage, even in the context of economic constraint s. Finally, this study indicates that the dynamics of economic develop ment and social security politics vary significantly across time. The need for historically specific studies of development is further sugge sted by these findings.