LABORATORY TESTS OF A MOTIVATIONAL-PERCEPTUAL MODEL OF CONFLICT ESCALATION

We present a model suggesting that international conflicts escalate to violence when countries (a) express higher levels of power motive ima gery, (b) exaggerate levels of perceived power motive imagery in commu nications and statements from the ''other'' side, and (c) express stil l higher levels of power motive imagery as a result of such exaggerate d perceptions. The model is supported by three studies. In the first t wo, participants wrote replies to one of two versions of the same lett er taken from a real crisis. The third study explored conditions that affect the exaggerated perception of power motive imagery of the other side by asking participants to highlight the important points of a le tter from a real crisis, under neutral conditions and under conditions arousing power motivation. The role of psychological variables in the escalation of conflicts to violence is discussed.