ADOPTION OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES UNDER OUTPUT UNCERTAINTY

A model of divisible technology adoption under incomplete information dissemination and output uncertainty is developed. We identify economi c and subjective factors affecting technology adoption and its intensi ty. Empirical estimation employs a mixed dichotomous-continuous framew ork with nonrandom sample selection. Producers' adoption intensity is conditional on their knowing about and deciding to adopt the new techn ology. Using survey data on bST (bovine somatotropin) adoption among T exas dairy producers, we find that larger and more educated operators are likely to adopt more intensively. Traditional dichotomous adoption models without sample selection significantly overestimate the adopti on rate.