IS THERE ANY HOPE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION - A PANELDISCUSSION

The outlook tor tropical cyclone intensity forecasts from operational and from research perspectives was discussed during a panel discussion at the 19th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Wherea s the operational requirement at the National Hurricane Center is to p redict maximum 1-min sustained wind speeds at specific locations, the research community is addressing the prediction of the maximum wind or minimum sea level pressure in the storm. Commonality was found in the forecast strategies for subjectively predicting storm intensity. The panelists suggested improvements may be gained from additional observa tions, better conceptual and theoretical models of storm structure and behavior, and enhancements in statistical and numerical models. The d iscussion period brought out opposing viewpoints on a number of topics . Both new observations and better use of the existing observations we re believed to be necessary. The limitations and advantages of remotel y sensed data for this problem were raised. The most vigorous debates were on the physical processes, such as existence or nonexistence of c oupling between outer and inner core structure, and whether convection is simply a response to forcing or is an essential contributor to unc ertainty in intensity forecasting. Several participants suggested that uncertainties related to the sea surface temperature and its evolutio n also contribute to the intensity forecast problem. Some specific sug gestions for improving intensity forecasts are given in terms of new o bservations, new basic understandings, and new applied developments.