A condition of oxide-scale spalling is derived from the concept of str
ain energy proposed by Evans. By considering the probabilistic distrib
ution of fracture strain energy across the metal oxide interface, the
fraction of oxide scale spalled is described as a function of the weig
ht of oxide before cooling and temperature change. The cyclic-oxidatio
n behavior is modeled with this result. The prediction by the model is
shown to be in good agreement with data on the oxidation behavior und
er thermal cycling.