DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST OF SLUG ACTIVITY - VALIDATION OF MODELS TO PREDICT SLUG ACTIVITY FROM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

Slug activity was recorded at 14 sites in the UK during the autumn of 1990. The efficacy of models that predict slug activity from meteorolo gical conditions was assessed using these data. A model using measurem ents of air and soil temperature from local weather stations and a gra vimetric determination of soil moisture content was successful in pred icting slug activity. A visual assessment of soil moisture content was developed and incorporated into an improved model to predict slug act ivity.