SOME LAWS OF MORTALITY - HOW WELL DO THEY FIT

The goodnesses of fit over the entire life span of four models of mort ality are compared using life tables from Australia and the United Sta tes. The results indicate that the five-parameter Siler model fits con siderably better than the more complex eight-parameter Heligman-Pollar d and Mode-Busby models. On the other hand, the ten-parameter model pr oposed by Mode and Jacobson fits human mortality patterns better than the Siler model. We conclude that the Heligman-Pollard and Mode-Busby models are probably misspecified. Additional research is necessary to determine (1) whether the Heligman-Pollard model can be improved by sp ecifying it as a true hazard model and (2) whether the respecified Hel igman-Pollard and Mode-Jacobson models are statistically robust, parti cularly with abridged life tables.