BRAIN NATRIURETIC PEPTIDE PREDICTS MORTALITY IN THE ELDERLY

Objective-To study whether prospective measurements of circulating con centrations of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) could predict mortality in the general elderly population. Design and setting-Circulating BNP was measured in a cohort of 85 year olds from the general population who were followed up prospectively for five years as part of a longitu dinal population study, ''70 year old people in Gothenburg, Sweden''. Patients-541 subjects from the 85 year old population in Gothenburg. A ll subjects were investigated for the presence or absence of cardiovas cular disorder such as congestive heart failure, ischaemic heart disea se, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation. Venous plasma samples were obtained for BNP analysis. Main outcome measure-Overall mortality duri ng the prospective follow up period. Results-Circulating concentration s of BNP predicted five-year mortality in the total population (P < 0. 001). In subjects with a known cardiovascular disorder, five-year mort ality was correlated with increased BNP concentrations (P < 0.01). Inc reased BNP concentrations predicted five-year mortality in subjects wi thout a defined cardiovascular disorder (P < 0.05). Conclusions-In an elderly population, measurements of BNP may add valuable prognostic in formation and may be used to predict mortality in the total population as well as in patients with known cardiovascular disorders. In subjec ts without any known cardiovascular disorder, BNP was a strong and ind ependent predictor of total mortality.