THE SEASONALITY OF VIOLENT CRIME - THE CASE OF ROBBERY AND HOMICIDE IN ISRAEL

The relationship between season of the year and criminal behavior is a classical topic in criminological research. However much of the resea rch in this field is atheoretical and the findings are inconsistent an d contradictory. The present study investigated the seasonality of hom icide and robbery in Israel from 1977 to 1985. The authors' analysis w as informed by the routine activity approach, which views crime as a f unction of three main elements: motivated offenders, suitable targets, and absence of guardians. Based on this approach and on the differenc es between homicide and robbery (with regard to motivation, victim-off ender relationships, and planning), the authors hypothesized that robb ery would show a seasonal trend and would peak during the winter (Nove mber through March) due to the increase in the cost of living and the facilitating environmental conditions during these months. In contrast , they expected homicide to be most prevalent in August (when social i nteraction is at its highest level), and that it would not follow a di stinct seasonal pattern because victim availability and suitability, a s well as the variety of motives involved in homicide, make this crime much less dependent on climatic conditions. The data were analyzed by three statistical methods: a stochastic model (SARIMA), a X - 11 seas onal adjustment, and a rank order of the three highest months. The res ults generally supported the hypotheses indicating the utility of the routine activity approach as a useful framework for analyzing the seas onality of crime. The methodological implications of using different d efinitions and measures of seasonality are discussed, and suggestions are put forward for further study in this field.