ON THE USE OF DISPERSION MEASURES FROM NAPM SURVEYS IN BUSINESS-CYCLEFORECASTING

Authors
DASGUPTA S LAHIRI K
Citation
S. Dasgupta et K. Lahiri, ON THE USE OF DISPERSION MEASURES FROM NAPM SURVEYS IN BUSINESS-CYCLEFORECASTING, Journal of forecasting, 12(3-4), 1993, pp. 239-253
Citations number
37
Categorie Soggetti
Management,"Planning & Development
Journal title
Journal of forecasting → ACNP
ISSN journal
02776693
Volume
12
Issue
3-4
Year of publication
1993
Pages
239 - 253
Database
ISI
SICI code
0277-6693(1993)12:3-4<239:OTUODM>2.0.ZU;2-H
Abstract
Qualitative survey data on changes in production, inventory, new order , and employment collected every month by the National Association of Purchasing Managers are analysed over 1948-90. The Probability method we use generates time-series estimates of cross-section variabilities across firms. It is shown that these diffusion measures have additiona l explanatory power in the prediction of business cycle turning points .