MODELING THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF AIDS, WITH AN APPLICATION TO TANZANIA

Authors
CUDDINGTON JT
Citation
Jt. Cuddington, MODELING THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF AIDS, WITH AN APPLICATION TO TANZANIA, The World Bank economic review, 7(2), 1993, pp. 173-189
Citations number
16
Categorie Soggetti
Business Finance",Economics
Journal title
The World Bank economic review → ACNP
ISSN journal
02586770
Volume
7
Issue
2
Year of publication
1993
Pages
173 - 189
Database
ISI
SICI code
0258-6770(1993)7:2<173:MTMEOA>2.0.ZU;2-1
Abstract
A Solow-style model is developed to study the effects of the AIDS epid emic on the growth path of the economy and GDP per capita. The model u ses conjectures about the demographic effects of AIDS in Tanzania to e stimate the macroeconomic effects on the economy. The findings suggest that, without decisive policy action, AIDS may reduce Tanzanian GDP i n the year 2010 by 15 to 25 percent in relation to a counterfactual no -AIDS scenario. Per capita income levels are expected to fall by 0 to 10 percent by 2010.