HISTOLOGIC FEATURES PREDICTIVE OF BASAL-CELL CARCINOMA RECURRENCE - RESULTS OF A MULTIVARIATE-ANALYSIS

Previous univariate analysis of 30 recurrent and 74 non-recurrent basa l cell carcinomas identified 6 histologic parameters predictive of rec urrence: distance to the closest resection margin, growth pattern, sha pe of cell groups, contour of invading edge, degree of peripheral pali sading, and nuclear pleomorphism. Re-analysis of the data by multivari ate analysis to select the few most important independent prognostic v ariables identified two parameters in each of two final models: resect ion margin distance and growth pattern (Model 1), and resection margin distance and shape of cell groups (Model 2). Based on these variables , a logistic regression equation could be derived for each model to ca lculate the predicted probability of recurrence or non-recurrence.