HOW SAFE WERE TODAYS OLDER DRIVERS WHEN THEY WERE YOUNGER

Data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System for 1975-1990 were used to perform longitudinal analyses of car driver fatality rates (driver fatalities per million population) for a 16-year period; for example, the fatality rate of drivers born in 1960 was examined for ages 15 yea rs through 30 years. It was found that fatality rates for male drivers of a given age systematically decline with increasing birth year; for example, 20-year-olds born in 1970 have lower fatality rates than do 20-year-olds born in 1960. The fatality rates for cohorts of drivers o f either sex do not begin to increase appreciably until about age 70 y ears, and then they approximately double by age 80 years. These increa ses are of a lesser magnitude, and occur later, than those found in th e earlier cross-sectional analyses that identified the ''older driver problem.''