ANALYSIS OF THE LITHUANIAN FINAL ENERGY-CONSUMPTION USING FUZZY-SETS

In the paper, the development of final energy consumption in Lithuania , on the basis of realistic economic scenarios, is investigated. The m ain parameters influencing the energy consumption are the gross nation al product (GNP) and the wholesale price of energy. Owing to the uncer tainties in former socialist economies, these parameters are described as 'fuzzy sets.' The theory of fuzzy sets is used to study the influe nces that the prices of preceding periods have on the actual final ene rgy consumption, with a quasidynamic model. In so far as this mechanis m cannot be ascertained for Lithuania, experiences with other former c entrally planned economies, which have already turned into a kind of m arket economy, are applied to give realistic projections for the trans itory period. The underlying scenarios for the GNP and price developme nts are taken from official Lithuanian projections. The results of the fuzzy quasidynamic model are compared with the official final energy demand projections, to provide policy advice for a proper restructurin g of the energy system.