PRINCIPLES OF PREDICTIVE MODELING OF MICROBIAL-GROWTH

The traditional approach to determine the microbiological quality of a food is retrospective. An useful alternative is represented by the pr edictive microbiology where the effects of a combination of variables on the microbial response are discussed. A series of quite different p redictive models has been developed. Probabilistic models are appropri ate where the concern is toxin production. while kinetics models are s uitable for spoilage or food poisoning microorganisms. The former are models that predict the probability of a microbial response under give n conditions, while the latter are models that predict the rate of gro wth. Although the advantage of using models, practical applications in the industry are missing. This fact is probably due to the complex ma thematical operations connected to the use of models.