Outcomes of primary care back pain patients (N = 1128) were studied at
1 year after seeking care. Changes in depression depending on outcome
, and predictors of poor outcome were evaluated. Less than one back pa
in patient in five reported recent onset (first onset within the previ
ous 6 months). One year after seeking care, the large majority of both
recent and nonrecent-onset patients reported having back pain in the
previous month (69% vs. 82%). A significant minority of both recent an
d nonrecent-onset patients had either a poor functional outcome (14% v
s. 21%) or continuing high intensity pain without appreciable disabili
ty (10% vs. 16%). Predictors of poor outcomes included pain-related di
sability, days in pain, lower educational attainment, and female gende
r. Among initially dysfunctional patients with persistent pain, one ha
lf were improved and one third had a good outcome at the 1-year follow
-up. Among initially dysfunctional patients who experienced a good out
come, elevated depressive symptoms improved to normal levels at follow
-up. The outcome of back pain was predicted by pain-related disability
and days in pain rather than by recency of onset, so it may be more m
eaningful to distinguish characteristic levels of pain intensity, pain
=related disability, and pain persistence than to classify patients as
acute or chronic.