Background. American Board of Surgery (ABS) In-Training Examination (A
BSITE) scores correlate with future examination scores, but faculty ev
aluations of resident skill have not been shown to predict future perf
ormance. Methods. Objective and subjective evaluations during the past
15 years in our columnar university surgical residency were reviewed
to assess their ability to predict success on the qualifying (written)
and oral (certifying) examinations offered by the ABS. Results. The A
BSITE scores correlated with success on the qualifying examination (mu
ltiple R2 = 0.473). Subjective assessments of resident knowledge at an
y level did not correlate with ABSITE or qualifying scores, but above
average scores did predict success on the certifying examination (chi2
, p < 0.005). Chief-year ABSITE total percentile score and score of fi
rst qualifying examination also predicted success on the certifying ex
amination. The attrition rate in our nonpyramidal program was 23 %, of
which more than one half were voluntary. One of 11 residents leaving
the program has subsequently attained ABS certification. Conclusions.
This study shows that faculty's subjective evaluations predicted resid
ent success on the ABS certifying examination and also endorses the AB
S oral examination as an effective measure of the candidate's ability
to communicate surgical knowledge.