ARE ECONOMIC FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN NAIVE PREDICTIONS - AN APPROPRIATE TEST

Authors
KOLB RA STEKLER HO
Citation
Ra. Kolb et Ho. Stekler, ARE ECONOMIC FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN NAIVE PREDICTIONS - AN APPROPRIATE TEST, International journal of forecasting, 9(1), 1993, pp. 117-120
Citations number
4
Categorie Soggetti
Management,"Planning & Development
Journal title
International journal of forecasting → ACNP
ISSN journal
01692070
Volume
9
Issue
1
Year of publication
1993
Pages
117 - 120
Database
ISI
SICI code
0169-2070(1993)9:1<117:AEFSBT>2.0.ZU;2-E
Abstract
Most forecast evaluations do not test whether the predictions are stat istically significantly better than naive forecasts. This note describ es how an existing test can be used to test the hypothesis that predic tions are superior to naive forecasts.