TO LEAVE OR NOT TO LEAVE - A LOGIT MODEL OF TURNOVER IN THE PRESIDENTIAL CABINET

This work takes a fresh conceptual and theoretical approach to the iss ue of job stability at the highest level of the federal bureaucracy-th e presidential cabinet. Joseph A. Schlesinger's ambition theory provid es the theoretical base for a systematic analysis of the turnover of c abinet appointees from the administrations of George Washington throug h Ronald Reagan. Findings support the contention that turnover (changi ng incumbents) provides a relevant and practical conceptual focus, pot entially preferable to tenure (actual length of service). While findin gs are mixed, it is clear that public and private sector ambitions and opportunities do help guide the career decisions of cabinet appointee s. For example, static ambitions toward government service provide inc entives for cabinet members to leave their posts before the end of the term; progressive ambition toward the presidency or vice presidency i s strongly related to an appointee's completion of the term. These, an d other findings, have important implications both for presidential ap pointment strategies and for future research in the area.