THE KNEW-IT-ALL-ALONG-EFFECT IN JUDGMENTAL SETTINGS OF HIGH AND LOW SELF-ESTEEM-RELEVANCE

The hindsight bias is the tendency for people with outcome knowledge t o believe falsely that they would have predicted the reported outcome of an event. The present study investigated the dependence of the bind sight bias on the self-esteem relevance of the predictions. Subjects p redicted intelligence test scores for themselves or a fictitious perso n (high and low self-esteem relevance). One week later some subjects r eceived feedback about the scores of the intelligence test that had be en done. This feedback was either higher or lower than the originally predicted scores. The other subjects did not get any feedback about te st scores (control group). All subjects had to recall their initial te st score predictions. The results indicated that subjects who predicte d the test scores of another person showed the typical hindsight bias. On the other hand, subjects who predicted their own test results did not show any hindsight bias at all, but an accurate recall of predicti ons. Results are interpreted as supporting the response bias perspecti ve (McCloskey & Zaragoza, 1985). They contradict, however, motivationa l explanations of the hindsight bias such as the self-esteem-position or the self-presentation position.