PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE OF POWER-GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION WORLDWIDE

The paper reviews world-power demand: energy resource, environmental, technological, financial, and political. International perspectives on the future of power generation and transmission to early next century in Germany, Italy, France, Japan, and the United States are discussed . Following reunification, the two parts of Germany have significantly different supply situations. Demand in Western Germany at this time i s reasonable while Eastern Germany's demand decrease has been dramatic . Discussed are nuclear power stations in Eastern Germany that are bei ng closed down on safety grounds and the construction of semifinished nuclear plants that has been halted. Economic use of energy and combin ed heat and power is also evaluated. The paper then discusses the Ital ian energy sector, which is the most import and hydrocarbon dependent of any of the major European economies. Fifty-eight percent of the fue l currently used by the state-owned utility ENEL, is oil. After Cherno byl, the Italian nuclear program was stopped. Distribution of the gene ration between Nuclear and Hydro units in France is then reviewed Inte rnational interconnections between France and European countries are t hen discussed Future Generation in France, as at this time, will be ma inly nuclear using PWR's. Three major policy agendas for Japan are rev iewed These are: 1) effective use of energy; 2) appropriate energy sup plies or the best mix; and 3) active promotion of international cooper ation in all energy matters. Current supply capacity in Japan of 164 G W will increase to about 224 GW towards the end of the century. The ad ditional 60 GW capacity will be comprised of approximately 20 GW nucle ar, 15 GW oil, 15 GW coal, and 10 GW hydro, etc. A 1000-kV trunk line to transmit nuclear power to Metropolitan areas that is under construc tion is also discussed. The paper then examines proposed changes to Cl ean Air Acts to reduce SO2 emissions on electric power generation in t he United States. Utilities may have to consider short-term measures s uch as rescheduling of the dispatch order, installation of scrubbers, and fuel switching as well as long term decisions such as plant decomm issioning and reexamination of environmentally acceptable ''clean'' re sources. In transmission, fast-acting solid-state thyristor controller s will enable increased power transfers over existing corridors while maintaining transient and dynamic stability. Of significance are thyri stor controlled series compensators, solid-state phase shifters, advan ced static VAR compensators, and solid-state dynamic braking reactors. Upgrading of lines on existing rights of way will receive increased a ttention in future years.