PREDICTION OF NINO-3 SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES USING LINEAR INVERSE MODELING

Linear inverse modeling is used to predict sea surface temperatures (S STs) in the Nino 3 region. Predictors in three geographical locations are used: the tropical Pacific Ocean, the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, and the global tropical oceans. Predictions did not depend cru cially on any of these three domains, and evidence was found to suppor t the assumption that linear dynamics dominates most of the record. Th e prediction model performs better when SST anomalies are rapidly evol ving than during warm events when large anomalies persist. The rms pre diction error at a lead time of 9 months is about half a degree Celsiu s.