THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF UNITED-STATES FERTILITY, 1970-1990

The fertility downturn in the U.S. since the baby boom has been accomp anied by a growing divergence in regional fertility rates. This paper examines the spatial implications of recent fertility trends. Two inte rrelated questions are posed. First, how and why have the time trends in fertility varied spatially? Second, how have the regional patterns of fertility changed over time? These questions are investigated using a continuous spatio-temporal model of U.S. fertility built using the Dual Expansion Method. Results indicate that the pace of fertility dec line has been the most rapid in the Northeast and the slowest in the W est. Further, the traditional North-South distinctions in fertility ra tes are being replaced by East-West patterns. These changes tentativel y suggest that regional ethnic composition is becoming an increasingly important factor in accounting for the spatial variation of U.S. fert ility.