SIMULATION OF THE OIL TRAJECTORY AND FATE IN THE ARABIAN GULF FROM THE MINA-AL-AHMADI SPILL

An oil spill response model, configured for operation on a personal co mputer, was applied to predict the transport and fate of oil from the Mina Al Ahmadi spill in the northern Arabian Gulf. The model predicts the drift, spread, evaporation, dispersion, emulsification, and shorel ine interaction of the spilled oil. Wind data necessary as input to th e model was generated by Monte Carlo procedures from an analysis of hi storical data or provided by wind forecasts. Current data was provided by a hydrodynamic model of the Gulf. Predictions of tidal (M2, S2, K1 and O1) and wind-induced (eight major wind directions) circulation we re included as input to the spill model. The spill model was validated against the 1983 Norwuz platform spill and the 1980 Hasbah spill. The model was applied in forecast and hindcast modes to predict the trans port and fate of the Mina Al Ahmadi (Sea Island) Terminal spill, which started on 19 January 1991. Model predictions were compared to the ob servations of slick size and arrival times at key locations along the Saudi Arabian coast. The model correctly predicted the spill path and size but overestimated the rate of transport in the forecast mode. Hin dcasts were in better agreement with the observations.