ON THE RATIONALITY OF UNITED-STATES MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS - EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS

Authors
BAGHESTANI H KIANIAN AM
Citation
H. Baghestani et Am. Kianian, ON THE RATIONALITY OF UNITED-STATES MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS - EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS, Applied economics, 25(7), 1993, pp. 869-878
Citations number
13
Categorie Soggetti
Economics
Journal title
Applied economics → ACNP
ISSN journal
00036846
Volume
25
Issue
7
Year of publication
1993
Pages
869 - 878
Database
ISI
SICI code
0003-6846(1993)25:7<869:OTROUM>2.0.ZU;2-E
Abstract
ASA-NBER survey data is used to check the rationality of US macroecono mic forecasts. It is found that of 75 forecast series examined, 51 are biased, 25 are both unbiased and efficient and only two pass the null hypothesis of orthogonality. This calls into question the validity of rational expectations hypothesis.