TRADE, CAPITAL AND THE TRANSITION IN CENTRAL-EUROPE

The potential for export-oriented growth and the impact of official ca pital injections is assessed for five Central European countries in th e years 1990 2000 by means of a neoclassical simulation model. Export growth is essential for the transition to a market-oriented economy an d the recovery of Central Europe, implying the need for trade liberali zation by both the Fast and the West. If this condition is being met, satisfactory GDP growth rates appear possible, even without external f inancial support.