THE DEVELOPMENT AND VERIFICATION OF TIPS - AN EXPERT-SYSTEM TO FORECAST THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE

A rule-based expert system has been developed to assist military weath er forecasters in the prediction of thunderstorms. The knowledge base used by the Thunderstorm Intelligence Prediction System (TIPS) was bui lt by using meteorological principles associated with convective activ ity. The goal of TIPS is to provide a gen system that can be used at a ny geographical location. TIPS was evaluated during the spring and sum mer months of 1990 for several locations across the United States. Thu nderstorm forecasts were derived using 1200 UTC, atmospheric sounding data, and a single forecaster input value. Verification results show t hat TIPS can assist the weather forecaster in predicting thunderstorm occurrence.