I. Dror, THE PROCESS OF TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION - MULTITECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONS AS THE DRIVING-FORCE, Technological forecasting & social change, 44(1), 1993, pp. 49-58
Technological innovations are the substance of technology and the driv
ers of its evolution. This process was studied by analyzing the US pat
ent data base, getting information on types of innovation and on their
trends. It was found that the evolution of a technology depends upon
its annexing multitechnology innovations. Ascending technologies utili
ze wide-range innovations, while mature technologies utilize narrow-ra
nge innovations. The findings are summed up in a model that shows the
life cycle of a technology, from emergence to maturity. The model can
be applied at a laboratory level, at a firm strategy level, as well as
at the national level. Some examples are presented to illustrate appl
ications.