USE OF AVHRR DATA TO VERIFY A SYSTEM FOR FORECASTING DIURNAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY

Forecasts from an operational system for predicting global diurnal sea surface temperature (SST) variability are compared against multichann el sea surface temperatures calculated from advanced very high resolut ion radiometer data from the NOAA-9 satellite. The forecast system con sists of an upper-ocean model driven by heat fluxes and wind stresses from an operational global weather prediction model. Visual pattern co rrelations between observed and forecast diurnal changes in SST are ge nerally favourable, indicating that the forecast system is useful. Som e systematic deficiencies are also noted: the forecasts do not reprodu ce the surprisingly sharp boundaries of diurnal warming regions and un derpredict the amplitude of the extreme warming events.