AN ECONOMIC-ANALYSIS OF THE PREVENTION OF PESTE-DES-PETITS RUMINANTS IN NIGERIAN GOATS

Recent serological evidence and clinical observations have indicated t hat small-ruminant plague (peste des petits ruminants, PPR) may be a m ajor constraint to small-ruminant production in the pastoral zone of c entral Niger. In 1986, the Government of Niger made a decision to vacc inate the national small-ruminant herd against PPR. In order to determ ine the potential effectiveness of this decision, a 5-year dynamic her d model of the national goat herd of Niger was constructed. The age an d sex demographics for this model were based on data collected from th e 30 herds used in the PPR point prevalence survey. Population and pro duction parameters used in this model were based on data collected in several studies of goat production in Niger. Economic analyses (net pr esent value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR)) of the benefits o f the PPR vaccination programme were made, and sensitivity analyses on various discount rates, vaccination costs, and animal market values w ere done. The PPR vaccination programme instituted by the Government o f Niger appears to be highly beneficial with an anticipated NPV return in 5 years of 24 million dollars (IRR > 900%) following an investment of 2 million dollars; there would be an anticipated minimum NPV retur n of 14 million dollars with an investment of 10 million dollars (IRR > 100%) if the cost of the vaccination programme were to increase five -fold.