DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDEX TO PREDICT POSTTRANSPLANT DIABETES-MELLITUS

The objectives of this study were to (1) identify risk factors and dev elop a prediction index for posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM), ( 2) validate the risk factors and assess the index's predictive ability , and (3) modify the index to enhance its predictive accuracy. Preoper ative variables included gender, race, age at transplantation, donor s ource, number of previous transplants, percentage of ideal body weight , family history of diabetes, and HLA type. Postoperative variables we re glucose intolerance on postoperative days 0-3 and 4-7. Age, family history, glucose intolerance during postoperative d 4-7, and specific HLA types were significant independent risk factors for PTDM. No indep endent effects of race, gender, or donor source were detected. The fou r independent risk factors produced an equation that accurately predic ted PTDM in 77% of the patients. Specificity and negative predictive v alues reached 75% and 97%, respectively, for the population of men.