THE GROWTH OF EXHAUSTION

Management plans, policies and decisions must fit the given stage of s ocietal evolution. A good policy (e.g.) at a time of innovation in a K ondratiev or hegemonic cycle/structure may be a counterintuitively bad and dangerous policy at a time of saturation and exhaustion of ideas. The nature of the Kondratiev and hegemonic cycles/ structures is furt her examined from the perspective of the life cycle of collective inte lligence and knowledge. Effective intelligence and knowledge are thems elves considered to be evolving macrostructures; a view much different from both the Shannon-Weaver and computer-science perspectives, but a view much more consonant with modem dynamic systems theory. Some unto ward experiences with the use of models in energy management during th e falling leg of Kondratiev Number Four are noted. The origin and exha ustion of contemporary problemsolving approaches are discussed from a theoretical perspective and some thoughts on a possible fifth Kondrati ev recovery given. In conclusion, the main theory is synopsized and so me brief recommendations made for further thinking about operational r esearch modeling.