A THEORY OF TECHNOLOGICAL-PROGRESS

A theory of the development of artifacts and their technologies is pre sented. This theory starts by establishing a hierarchy of artifacts an d classifying them in a simple scheme. Then the growth of a new artifa ct in the absence of substantial competition is modeled and illustrate d with realistic examples. The model is further developed to explain t he substitution of one artifact technology for another. It is shown th at substitution is a special case in a more general theory which is ne cessary when an attacker has a performance advantage over the defender as is usually the case. This is quantified in several real instances. Finally the important role of stochastic events is shown by defining five categories and some of their known effects.