INFLUENCES ON THE DURATION OF WARS, STRIKES, RIOTS, AND FAMILY ARGUMENTS

Utility theory has been frequently applied in the analyses of the outb reak of war. The present study extends the application of utility theo ry to conflict duration. The authors consider how the perceived utilit y of continuing conflict changes while conflicts am under way, and pos it that conflicts end when the utility of continuing is less than the utility of surrender. Predictions developed from the theory are tested , using hazard models, on duration data from actual wars, strikes, rio ts, and family arguments. Consistent with utility theory, the likeliho od of wars and strikes ending is found to decrease while they are unde r way, exhibiting a tendency for these conflicts to become entrenched. In sharp contrast to this, but consistent with utility theory, riots and family arguments are more likely to end the longer they last. Size of conflict and dispute issue are shown to effect duration in some ci rcumstances. The results offer a way of explaining how conflicts betwe en ''rational'' organizations become entrenched and resistant to resol ution. Implications for efforts to reduce conflict duration are discus sed.