CLIMATE-CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION IN NORTHERN CANADA - AN INTEGRATED IMPACT ASSESSMENT

The physical and economic impacts of climate warming in the Mackenzie River Valley, Northwest Territories, Canada are estimated using a comb ination of stochastic modelling, econometric-modelling and input-outpu t analysis. The attempt was to illustrate the utility of using analyti cal models for long-term impact assessment as well as to estimate the potential impacts from projected climate warming in the region. A scen ario approach, based on three global circulation models, was used, wit h an emphasis on modelling climate variability, river ice conditions a nd economic impacts. The transportation system was used as a central f ocus linking the physical and socio-economic components. Despite the s ignificant warming projected for the region, results show the economic impacts from changes in transportation to be relatively minor, with t he greatest changes being in the tertiary, or service, sector.